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Did Tuesday's election results REALLY say anything about Bush?

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

I know this is now one week late, but ...

ABC News Headline - Bush Effort to Aid Republican Falls Short - President Bush's Political Standing Hurt After Effort to Aid Va. Republican Falls Short - Virginia's Election of Kaine Lets Democrats Stand Up to Bush

Sydney, Australia - Democrat victories give Bush black eye

While some are trying to take the results of Tuesday's elections as a Referendum on Bush, I doubt that you can really take much out of these elections that matter, for at least the following reasons.

The Virginia election of Kaine seems to have been much more related to the fact that the current Virginia Governer, Mark Warner, seems to be a popular governor and Kaine's election seems to be a carryover effect from Warner's administration. I live in Maryland now and we get the D.C. stations and there seemed to be very little in the way of news or advertising that dealt with Bush in this campaign.

The fact that the current Democtratic Governor was elected in November 2001 when Bush's approval rating were through the roof should indicate that Bush's standing is not really a deciding factor in the race for the Virginia governorship.

Regarding the New Jersey governor's race ... well, it's New Jersey. I lived in NJ from 1995 to 2005. The state is a pretty liberal state. While Whitman won as a Republican, she was a RINO who was very liberal on the social issues (she even vetoed a ban against partial-birth abortions and had that veto overturned). If I were a betting man (which I am not), I would not have bet on Forrester to win. When I saw some polls that looked close, I felt about them the same as I did the polls that had Bush pulling close to Kerry in NJ in 2004 - it ain't gonna happen, don't waste your money or time here, use it in Ohio or Florida where it might actually make a difference.

Anyway, to take these two losses as somehow a referrendum on Bush or a reflection of the strength of the Republican party is an unwise move, in my opinion.

Just my thoughts,